{r analysis, include = FALSE} #source('synthetic_control_analysis.R', local = TRUE) #

Brazil_mortality_ Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
3-<12mo_high 0.99 (0.88, 1.12) 0.99 (0.89, 1.12) 0.98 (0.8, 1.23) 1.16 (0.91, 1.48) 0.9 (0.78, 1.04)
3-<12mo_low 1.02 (0.86, 1.22) 1.02 (0.85, 1.22) 0.83 (0.6, 1.14) 0.99 (0.75, 1.33) 0.92 (0.72, 1.18)
3-<12mo_medium 0.99 (0.85, 1.16) 0.99 (0.85, 1.16) 0.9 (0.72, 1.13) 1.19 (0.94, 1.51) 1.01 (0.85, 1.21)
3-<24mo_high 1 (0.91, 1.26) 0.99 (0.91, 1.14) 1.03 (0.89, 1.21) 1.2 (0.98, 1.47) 0.98 (0.86, 1.13)
3-<24mo_low 1.02 (0.87, 1.2) 1.02 (0.87, 1.2) 0.87 (0.67, 1.14) 0.99 (0.8, 1.23) 1.01 (0.83, 1.24)
3-<24mo_medium 1 (0.87, 1.15) 1 (0.87, 1.15) 0.94 (0.77, 1.16) 1.15 (0.94, 1.42) 0.96 (0.82, 1.14)
3-<60mo_high 0.99 (0.92, 1.25) 0.99 (0.92, 1.21) 1.1 (0.93, 1.31) 1.22 (1, 1.51) 1.14 (0.97, 1.36)
3-<60mo_low 1.01 (0.88, 1.19) 1.01 (0.88, 1.18) 0.87 (0.71, 1.09) 0.98 (0.81, 1.19) 0.88 (0.76, 1.02)
3-<60mo_medium 1 (0.89, 1.14) 1 (0.89, 1.14) 1.02 (0.86, 1.22) 1.16 (0.98, 1.39) 0.97 (0.85, 1.12)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
3-<12mo_high 1.000 0 0.000 0.000
3-<12mo_low 1.000 0 0.000 0.000
3-<12mo_medium 1.000 0 0.000 0.000
3-<24mo_high 0.947 0 0.053 0.000
3-<24mo_low 1.000 0 0.000 0.000
3-<24mo_medium 1.000 0 0.000 0.000
3-<60mo_high 0.933 0 0.000 0.067
3-<60mo_low 1.000 0 0.000 0.000
3-<60mo_medium 1.000 0 0.000 0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
3-<12mo_high J09_J18 0.9999999 G00_G09 0.0087891 pop 0.0081451
3-<12mo_low J09_J18 0.9999807 pop 0.0137985 A00_A09 0.0125955
3-<12mo_medium J09_J18 0.9983820 pop 0.0125776 NoPCV 0.0097086
3-<24mo_high J09_J18 0.9999723 pop 0.0207827 G00_G09 0.0172676
3-<24mo_low J09_J18 0.9999218 pop 0.0093135 A00_A09 0.0082468
3-<24mo_medium J09_J18 0.9999856 pop 0.0079277 J40_J47 0.0061619
3-<60mo_high J09_J18 0.9999960 pop 0.0671709 NoPCV 0.0324130
3-<60mo_low J09_J18 0.9997370 pop 0.0069642 A00_A09 0.0064757
3-<60mo_medium J09_J18 0.9999229 pop 0.0062361 NoPCV 0.0041439

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
3-<12mo_high 0.99 (0.89, 1.12) J09_J18 1 0.95 (0.8, 1.32) G00_G09 0.01 0.96 (0.82, 1.39) pop 0.01 0.95 (0.8, 1.1)
3-<12mo_low 1.02 (0.85, 1.22) J09_J18 1 0.92 (0.75, 1.34) pop 0.01 0.91 (0.74, 1.17) A00_A09 0.01 0.85 (0.72, 1.01)
3-<12mo_medium 0.99 (0.85, 1.16) J09_J18 1 0.92 (0.76, 1.51) pop 0.01 0.91 (0.77, 1.08) A00_A09 0.01 0.91 (0.77, 1.06)
3-<24mo_high 0.99 (0.91, 1.14) J09_J18 1 0.92 (0.85, 1.02) pop 0.02 0.92 (0.85, 1.01) G00_G09 0.02 0.92 (0.85, 1)
3-<24mo_low 1.02 (0.87, 1.2) J09_J18 1 1.05 (0.79, 1.48) pop 0.01 0.93 (0.76, 1.13) A00_A09 0.01 0.83 (0.73, 0.97)
3-<24mo_medium 1 (0.87, 1.15) J09_J18 1 1.22 (0.82, 1.62) pop 0.01 0.93 (0.79, 1.2) J40_J47 0.01 0.92 (0.79, 1.1)
3-<60mo_high 0.99 (0.92, 1.21) J09_J18 1 1.02 (0.92, 1.12) pop 0.07 1.02 (0.93, 1.12) A00_A09 0.03 1.02 (0.93, 1.12)
3-<60mo_low 1.01 (0.88, 1.18) J09_J18 1 0.99 (0.79, 1.29) pop 0.01 0.93 (0.78, 1.1) A00_A09 0.01 0.83 (0.73, 0.94)
3-<60mo_medium 1 (0.89, 1.14) J09_J18 1 1.26 (0.89, 1.57) pop 0.01 0.98 (0.85, 1.14) A00_A09 0 0.98 (0.85, 1.15)

Plots

3-<12mo_high

3-<12mo_low

3-<12mo_medium

3-<24mo_high

3-<24mo_low

3-<24mo_medium

3-<60mo_high

3-<60mo_low

3-<60mo_medium